Tuesday, July 27, 2004

Why Google isn't worth anywhere close to $30 Billion

On the same day that Google announced they expect to IPO with a valuation most likely exceeding $30 Billion, Microsoft quietly reminds all those paying attention why you shouldn't bet the farm on Google.

Today Microsoft released a beta version of their MSNBC Newsbot. The site is very similar to Google's News site, but has one major difference, the ability for the software to adapt to show you the news you want to see. After reading a few stories I found the site was able to quickly find and recommend news stories I was interested in. The service isn't perfect, first off the site annoyingly shows a history of all the stories you have clicked on at the bottom of the page which I find somewhat invasive, and also the page isn't easily customized like your My Yahoo! page. Yet given these drawbacks it is easy to see the potential behind an "adaptive news service". Toss in the potential ability to have blogs recommended based on your reading habits and I think you have a winner.

So, given this new reminder of the brutal competition that will exist in the market, do you think Google deserves the type of premium they are seeking? I think the only way to say yes to that is to believe my "perfect storm" scenario for the company.

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